Friday, November 18, 2011

Do you think you'll get a final warning?

Don Dickinson and I have talked about the direction of the economy, both specific to the U.S. and on a global scale, in many of our Don and Doug webcasts over the past year. Far as we can tell, things remain heading in a negative direction.

While we can't say we're facing an imminent hard crash,  we can say such an event may come without a lot of additional warning.

Along those lines, Don sent me a few bullet-points this morning: 

When you study, simply as a part of systems, or physiology, or geology, or engineering the collapse of complex systems you find that everything usually seems normal or near normal right up until the moment of collapse.

  • The engine was running great until the piston came through the hood.
  • The gun was shooting fine until it suddenly blew up.
  • I was just sitting at the kitchen table with my wife when suddenly I smelled smoke we later found out that the house had already been on fire for an hour or more.
  • I though the car was making the turn just fine until it spun out.
  • The horse was winning the race until without warning, his right rear leg shattered.
  • The soldier was leading the five mile run until his heart broke and he died in an instant.
  • The World Trade Center towers were on fire but in no apparent danger of collapsing until suddenly, they did.
  • Rome had stood as the greatest power in history for over  a thousand years and then it fell almost without warning.
  • No one saw the collapse of the Soviet Union coming.
  • No one saw the collapse of LTCM coming.
and on and on............. 
Some of the things that will make the collapse longer and deeper when it comes are:

  • So few people are aware that it is coming.
  • So few people are prepared emotionally, in skills, or in physical preparations.
  • Modern societies are vastly more specialized and dependent on the system for survival than any others in history.
  • Few people have ever faced anything tough before in their lives and many have long ago renounced religion so they will have little emotional strength and no spiritual support.
  • This will be the first financial collapse in which everyone was on fiat and digital systems so there are no mass available backups like the US dollar during the German hyperinflation of the 1920s.
and on and on.....

Prepare for a hard landing.

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