Friday, January 23, 2015

How the Islamic State might conquer Saudi Arabia

Speculation begins. The death of King Abdullah might open doors for a quick and dirty conquest of Saudi Arabia.

John Robb lays out a possible scenario:
ISIS may have a golden opportunity to pivot south to take Mecca and Medina.  A southern pivot would capitalize on the increased fragility (of an already fragile country) caused by the succession.  It would also allow ISIS to continue the its impressive string of victories in the field.  However, this won't be a conventional war.  It's going to be an open source war to win a moral victory.
By the way, it's not just bloggers like Robb who see trouble brewing for Saudi.

The Washington Post notes:
Despite so many people saying it will be a smooth transition, there’s every reason to believe that Saudi Arabia is heading for rough times,” Simon Henderson, an expert on the Saudi succession at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said in an interview Thursday. 
“Having a king with dementia is the last thing they need at this difficult time,” Henderson said. “Yemen is falling apart, ISIS is knocking at the door . . . this is an extraordinarily dangerous Middle East from a Saudi perspective.”
I don't want a Saudi conquest to happen. A deeper entrenched Islamic State (aka ISIS) would be a more powerful and dangerous beast.

On the other hand, if is going to happen, I'd prefer it happen before U.S. oil drillers are bankrupted by the current flow of cheap Saudi oil. Other oil based economies are at risk as well.

If Saudi's going to fall, it would be better for the West if Western nations oil producing capacity is still fully intact when it does.

Updated with additional content 11:05 EST.

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