Sunday, August 21, 2016

Can we trust Election 2016 politically polling from here on in?

I've been pondering political polling this morning. If mainstream media is in the tank for Clinton, why should we assume its polling is any less biased than its writers or anchors?

And it may be pollsters aren't intentionally biased, but are still missing the mark.

Most polling samples more Democrats than Republicans in part because that's how recent past elections have gone, but will the trend hold this year? Best estimate I can find is that Republican primaries drew a million more voters than the Democrat primaries, so is it still safe to assume more Democrats will trot to the polls in November?

I'd suggest some of the present polling may rely too much on old establishment models when this is an election cycle where anti-establishment is a dynamic force. And then there may be a factor of post-Obama fatigue or disillusionment in some Democratic circles. Clinton's not the energetic rock-star campaigner Obama was. Throw in the wildcard Never-Trumpers on the GOP side, and I'll hypothesize this is an election year where polls should be assessed carefully, will be subjected to some very off-the-wall spin, and many pollsters with good records in the past may completely blow it between now and November.

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